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Be Predictable

We are a research firm that predicts if businesses are likely to survive or fail

Predictions are at the core of every decision. Whether running a business or investing in one, actions are underscored by predictions about what will happen next

Predictions in business are often made based on subjective criteria such as "intuition," "experience" or "gut feel." They can rely on ad hoc anecdotes and flawed heuristics

Predictions are risky and expensive. Inaccurate predictions can be catastrophic

Whether predicting competitive battles in the marketplace or the internal struggles of corporate innovation, we believe that decisions should be based on evidence, empirical data and fact. Yet before one can be guided by the facts one must know what they are. Business must advance further from art to science, with each step creating higher quality outcomes and greater levels of predictability. Growth comes from knowledge. Growth is not random. Growth is a science.

4 Top Trends in Venture Capital Today

May 21, 2010 @ 2:42 pm
posted by Thomas Thurston

For those wanting a quick update on the US venture capital industry, here are 4 Top Trends:

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A MICRO-EXPERIMENT

Framework in Question: Startups should focus on pursuing “marquee” customers. More

A MICRO-EXPERIMENT

Framework in Question: Pursuing “adjacent” markets increases the likelihood of new business success. More

A MICRO-EXPERIMENT

Framework in Question: Great management leadership is predictive of superior firm performance.  (i.e. ‘bet on the jockey, not the horse’)

Framework Background: Venture capitalists and angel investors cited the “quality of the management team” as a top indicator of likely startup success in a 2009 poll.  Indeed, few people would prefer bad, dysfunctional teams to good, effective teams.  There are numerous empirical studies supporting the view that good leadership can, indeed, make a positive difference in company performance.  But is it predictive? More

Good to Great: good, but not great

April 2, 2010 @ 7:42 pm
posted by Thomas Thurston

A MICRO-EXPERIMENT

Framework in Question: Level 5 Leadership More